May 24, 2024

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Avi Gilburt talks about TLT 2024 targets and what’s taking form in treasury market (0:25). Why he’s bullish on the metals; will silver outperform gold? (3:45) That is an abridged model of a latest dialog.

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Transcript

Rena Sherbill: Avi Gilburt, welcome again to Investing Consultants. All the time nice to speak to you on Searching for Alpha.

Lots of people are targeted on the bond market proper now and T-bills and trying to that space of the market. What are your ideas there? And in addition vis-à-vis possibly allocating that as a part of the portfolio.

Avi Gilburt: Properly, we monitor the (TLT), for instance, is an efficient ETF for everyone to trace on their very own simply as a common concept of what the treasury market is doing. And again in October of this 12 months, so a pair months in the past, I used to be giving our members a area of 81.75 to 82.50 as a bottoming zone for the TLT which may start a really giant rally into 2024.

I believe we bottomed at about 81, I believe the quantity right here is about 81.92 or so, I could possibly be improper, nevertheless it bottomed precisely proper within the zone we have been searching for that backside. Assuming once more, assuming the subsequent pullback is corrective, I’m searching for the TLT to subsequent rally up into the 105 to 110 area, doubtlessly adopted by one other corrective pull again.

And if we are able to get by means of that 109 area, then we’re simply going to get to 120. And ideally, that actually ought to be my minimal goal for 2024, the 120 area within the TLT. Relying on how the remainder of the 12 months takes form, it may even rise up as excessive because the 131 to 142 area.

However the greater problem with the TLT is, the subsequent rally that takes form, bigger diploma rally that takes form within the TLT, shouldn’t be one that you simply wish to take calmly.

You wish to use it as a chance to get out of the bond market to a fantastic extent as a result of no matter that rally and nevertheless that rally takes form, it’s doubtless – the way in which it’s establishing on the larger diploma charts, it’s doubtless going to arrange a bond market crash which doubtlessly could possibly be rather a lot worse than the one we’ve seen since 2020.

I wouldn’t think about what we’ve seen since 2020 essentially a bond market crash, I’d say sure, it was a really, very giant decline. However what could possibly be shaping up could possibly be a bond market crash as we glance in the direction of the second half of this decade.

Market construction is what provides me advance warning the place a market flip may take form. After which the character of the flip, how the flip develops tells me – does it have legs or not in the wrong way.

So relying on what occurs at 120, if the market begins declining in an as I put it, an impulsive five-wave construction, then that’s the preliminary sign {that a} bond market crash is beginning to develop. If the pullback from 120 is clearly corrective, then it doubtless means we’re going as much as 130 to about 142, 131 to 142. And from there, the bond market crash will most likely start.

RS: Some other sectors that you simply’re targeted on, or bullish on, or notably bearish on?

AG: I actually just like the metals. Metals are actually beginning to arrange in a means, and I’ve been writing about this for few months. Now the metals are establishing in a means that would current us with a serious transfer into 2024, possibly even into 2025 because it continues.

Gold and silver with silver doubtlessly outperforming gold and (GDX) which is a mining ETF being in between the 2.

RS: We had Don Durrett on, he runs a gold and silver mining and in addition simply gold and silver Investing Group. And he was speaking about how buyers ought to be stacking silver, how he’s simply extraordinarily bullish on that steel specifically over lengthy time frame.

Are you able to speak somewhat bit, articulate the explanation why it’s trying so bullish there?

AG: For me, it’s all about construction. And the construction to me is what tells me the place we’re in market sentiment and market sentiment, particularly within the metals is what drives it. I bear in mind my first article on Searching for Alpha was really my first technical article a few market, a few particular worth market was really within the gold market again in 2011. And all people was so bullish. It was going parabolic some days.

You have been seeing $50 plus rallies per day. And I bear in mind all people was arguing about one factor. How far previous 2000 are we going to go in 2011? And from the place I used to be sitting, it seemed like we have been hitting a prime. And I revealed my first article from a sentiment standpoint, which is what we monitor from an Elliott Wave evaluation perspective. And sentiment-wise, it was telling me that 1915 might be the place we’re going to see a prime. As we all know now, 1921 was the highest.

Now from a sentiment standpoint once more, even earlier than we prime, individuals have been asking, the place do I see the underside? The place do I see the market coming all the way down to? And I mentioned, I believe we’ll most likely drop again all the way down to round 1000. We bottomed at about 1045 or 1050 from what I bear in mind in gold.

So we take a look at all the things from a market sentiment standpoint and Elliott Wave evaluation tells us from a mathematical perspective the place we see how issues are going to maneuver. So once I take a look at the gold market, I’ll use the (GLD) as a result of, that’s most likely what extra individuals monitor than the rest. So long as we’re staying over the 175 to 180 area on GLD, to me that is an ETF that’s most likely going north of 250 over the subsequent 12 months or two.