April 19, 2024

Consensus forecasts for inflation in 2024 have modified little or no since January 2023.

Final week, I mentioned 5 long-term drivers of the world economic system — demography, local weather change, technological advance, the worldwide unfold of knowhow and financial progress itself. This week I’ll take a look at shocks, dangers and fragilities. Collectively, I recommend, all these form the economic system by which we reside.

A “shock” is a realised danger. Dangers, in flip, are nearly all conceivable. In Donald Rumsfeld’s useful phrasing they’re “recognized unknowns”. However their probability and severity are unknown. We’re surrounded…